Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. They authors two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
