Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension sparked by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: hopeful statements are released from different nations. Immense energy is expended on managing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from Russian territory, a capability enabled by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been scrambled to engage hostile guided weapons streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely supplied through Western nations. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun fired at a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely imported technology. Regrettably, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: several casualties, destruction and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a reliance that regional partners are demonstrably unable to fill in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, discussion and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame certain parties of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington functions according to a assumption understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration assumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does nothing to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: personal goals to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to eliminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.
